David Amerland
David Amerland
on Google
Image from David Amerland
Apr 9, 2020
Navigating uncertainty is a skill. There are two truths behind this sentence. First, it is a skill we all possess to some degree because uncertainty is a constant in our lives, even when we don't realize it. Second, when the uncertainty increases past a certain value it crosses the threshold from the subconscious to the conscious and at that point we need to be knowledgeable of the cognitive techniques we can apply to mitigate its effects on us.   Across the different types of activities we engage in as human beings we, inevitably, encounter uncertainty in settings where our ability to disengage and leave is severely limited. Consider a competitive game of football, a boxing match, a game of chess, a pitched battle. These are all circumstances that have a similar dynamic: antagonists face off against each other, factoring in a variety of factors about the terrain and each other's known capabilities and history to create probabilistic scenarios that determine choices, decisions, plans and actions.  Then consider a different set of circumstances: a coming storm, rising sea levels, a raging battle of asymmetrically capable adversaries, a bushfire that's out of control. The sheer magnitude of the threat we experience in such circumstances is so overpowering that the perceived uncertainty appears to go off the scale. When everything seems fluid no plan can stand a chance. Perhaps.  In fact this isn't so. The uncertainty we experience, despite its seemingly external points of origin, is in fact mostly internal. When we understand that we can put in operation specific techniques designed to mitigate the threat it poses and lead to workable solutions where none existed before. More than that, we can also attain desirable outcomes where we thought that none were possible.
Google apps
Main menu